Exit Poll Spreadsheet

 

Exit Poll Spreadsheet

This shows three sets of totals and percentages:

1. All votes cast including early voting.

2. Votes cast in person on Election Day at the polling place.

3. People who participated in the exit poll.

The two rightmost columns show the percentage who voted on Election Day, and of those, the percentage who participated in the exit poll.

The bottom line shows that 81.76% voted on Election Day, and 60.88% of Election Day voters participated in the exit poll.

Some of my observations…

If there was cheating, it was not glaring. The exit poll numbers were mostly proportionate to the total. There was probably little incentive to cheat in this primary election. 

I was surprised there were so many votes for Biden and Haley. I am now convinced that there are a lot of Biden supporters in the precinct. While contested and uncontested primaries are not necessarily a show of strength for the respective parties, I am convinced that significant numbers of people remain to be persuaded.

While Trump supporters were the most likely to vote on Election Day (88.78%), they were the least likely to participate in the exit poll (51.72%). One way to prove cheating would be to get 100% participation in the exit poll, and have exit poll numbers for your candidate that are greater than the official result. 

Vivek Ramaswamy had 2 votes in the exit poll and only 1 vote in the official result, so maybe he could have a case for cheating, but it also could have been a mistake made by one person filling out the exit poll questionnaire.

On the DFL side, Uncommitted had the biggest discrepancy, with 15.63% in the exit poll and 11.72% in the official results, a difference of 3.91%, but I’m not sure if that is statistically significant.

Maybe others can glean more from these numbers, or figure out how to access this precinct’s paper ballots as part of the MN SOS’s post-election review. And I’m not sure if it’s legal to go looking for 2 Vivek voters.

Also, 2 Haley voters annotated to indicate they were crossover Dems. 

A general election exit poll might be worth a try. Right now I am not interested in the August primary.

Exit Poll Results

Exit poll results from the March 5, 2024 US presidential primary. Minnesota, Plymouth W-4 P-21.