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Friday, April 24, 2015

Wisdom of the Crowd

And now for a more realistic technological idea. I’ve heard the CIA has been employing the “Wisdom of the Crowd” concept to test predictions about geopolitical events. Studies have shown that it is difficult for one person to guess, say, the number of beans in a jar, but if you poll a large number of people, and calculate the average, you can get surprisingly close. Why not create a free web site where people can predict the future, and maybe even avert some of humanity’s many dangers? I don’t have time to work on it right now, but basically, each screen would have an origination date, a prediction, and a future date. Site visitors would vote on the likelihood of each prediction coming true, then later, after the future date is past, they would vote on whether it came true or not. Anyone could submit a prediction, but only the most popular ones would float to the top. People who predicted the best would also get higher rankings. More features could be added, but the basic concept is pretty simple.


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